Private Sector Vaccine Mandates

As someone who thinks Sars-Cov-2 is very likely an engineered bio-weapon, I’d simply like to say I’m amazed at the desire to engage in controversial fervor around here. Can’t we all just discuss something less emotion-laden. Like the recent election of “black Hitler,” for instance.* And now for something completely different

*Standard non thread-derailer disclaimer :stuck_out_tongue:

On a less goofy note, here’s the type of specific scenario I’d guess to be most likely to develop in the medium term regarding public/private vaccination requirements:

  • a continued increase in the emphasis on the delta variant of COVID cases and the unacceptable dangers of its prevalence

  • a continued or increased refusal by MSM, communications/tech platforms, corporations and most gov. entities to allow non-vaccine driven treatment/prevention options a place in shaping the public conversation

  • an expansion of attempts to implement wide ranging passporting systems for the entire public - accomplished primarily through state/local jurisdictions and large corporate/business groups requirement of vaccination proof for entry/interaction/participation

  • moves to consolidate and “technologize” said passporting systems due to:

  1. potential for “fraud/fakes” in paper vaccine certificates
  1. promotion of selling points of “ease/convenience” to the public as accommodation and acceptance of the longer-term nature of passporting begins to take shape
  1. an eventual declaration of the “necessity” of such technologizing as enough implementation on the more local level becomes widespread combined with the integration of demands for passporting requirements from more national-level concerns (let’s just guess that preventing the spread of disease/COVID in air travel will be the first national-level wedge to this)
  2. the pre-existence of data-vacuuming entities ready and willing to provide such services and integrate them with private/public/tech/data concerns of every sort imaginable (so “convenient”) see here:

https://www.clearme.com/healthpass

  1. an increased utilization of the divided nature of beliefs regarding all these matters (and more) to foster societal dis-unity and break apart and disrupt the effectiveness of opposition (whether reasonable opposition or less-so)

I fully expect to see these things or variants (no pun intended) of all of them, just for starters.

I think I should say for purposes of clarity that despite the possibly bleak-sounding nature of these ideas, I really am approaching the thinking leading to these predictions in the furthest thing from a bleak, fatalistic or “nihilistic” perspective. I definitely expect to see these sorts of developments (and many others) but feel confident in the, at least, eventual strong failure of them. Despite what has been voiced by some, I really think much of what has happened so far and, imo, will likely be attempted is substantially less popular or desired than even a skeptic of COVID-dom might tend to think. The weaponry of manipulation that has been deployed on the American public is deeply rooted and highly developed.

This should produce optimism. It should also produce a recognition that essentially any form of eventual opposition to such systems that doesn’t take into account the scientifically effective “divide and conquer” tactics at work will be prone to massive failures and compromises of the wrong sort. I think being able to truly cooperatively work with our neighbors while at the same time being centrally faithful to our Lord and His gospel and commandments is key. I happen to think this might be easier than is sometimes thought. The number and cross-section of people who find what’s going on to be objectionable is almost comically broad. :crazy_face: I expect the ranks to increase.

For Christians, we have additional dangers to consider. Like the type of unfaithfulness that can result from pursuing even necessary, noble causes in a way that joins them too closely to more central duties. I think Lewis labels it “Christianity and…” through Screwtape’s instruction to Wormwood. Particularly dangerous if the church is neglecting some of its own reform at the same time. I really agree with Pastor Bayly that there may be a more likely revival of repentance beginning outside the church before it takes root widely inside the church. (I have some healthy optimism for inside the church, though, too!)

This is one reason I’ve found the critique of skepticism of some official narratives via dismissing the “reformed ghetto” as odd. I don’t know much about ghettos but ironically, I think that might be giving way too much credit for meaningfully critical discussions of COVID-related matters to the inside of the church.

The master commended the dishonest manager for his shrewdness. For the sons of this world are more shrewd in dealing with their own generation than the sons of light. - Luke 16:8

1 Like

My 2 cent bet:

Delta had already peaked and inexplicably declined in other countries well before it became panic time again here. My bet is that Delta fever fades from public discourse within 5 weeks.

Won’t happen in the USA.

Definitely not going to come from Apple or Google. Both have too many reputation problems to piss off that many Americans. And without their uniting to influence, I don’t think it will happen at all.

No argument from me here. Definitely seeing plenty of this on the conservative side. Regardless, disunity was going to continue growing in this country.

1 Like

ZeroHedge is saying it may have already peaked here. Take that for what it’s worth:

America is a huge country and just because Delta has peaked in the US doesn’t mean it’s peaked in your neighborhood.

I’d say that betting that Covid’s current wave is going to be smaller and less deadly than the prior two/three is a safe bet. Pandemics come in waves and at some point we likely turn a corner from a pandemic to endemic but I don’t know if there is a technical definition for when that happens. Even if there is, I doubt it will make anyone any saner.

2 Likes

The national 7day average doesn’t show any decline. It’s an ongoing incline. For what that’s worth.

That’s deaths, which lags cases. The previous link was cases.

1 Like

True there is some lag on deaths, but the cases numbers still don’t show any decline. Not to mention, the seasonal effect…we will undoubtedly see more increases from thanksgiving to after the new year.

Just FYI - Our Delta phase was one of the first and most explosive in the country, and we peaked weeks ago. However, cases remain much higher than they were in spring and early summer. Here is the graph for all of Missouri, it hit earlier and harder in my particular part of the state:

image

Also, though cases haven’t reached last fall/winters peak, hospitalizations (nearly) have, and deaths may still be rising:

image

image

2 Likes

All that I’m saying is there was no downward trend nationally, and there still isn’t.

The other thing to remember is that the cases numbers that are reported also have a lag time, which make the daily numbers appear more volatile. Using a 7 day average helps to see actual trends. That’s what these graphs show.

Indeed. Going back and looking at that article it was showing graphs of the derivative of the rate of change, not the number of cases. The number of new cases was not declining. Very silly to call that the peak, and even more blatantly wrong to say we were past the peak of daily infections. It was just fake news, frankly.

1 Like

Yeah, this it’s why it’s so hard for people to know what’s really going. I mean I know I’ve made some data errors before, but some of this is more propaganda than error. And frankly on both sides. I’m still having a hard time seeing that vaccines have made any improvements to our situation, but we probably won’t know for sure till the wave is done.

I’ll take my turn offering anecdote rather than data and say that a deacon and physician at my church reports that the people showing up at his hospital with COVID are almost all unvaccinated.

1 Like

I stumbled across this article from the Atlantic.

Alex Berenson: The Pandemic’s Wrongest Man - The Atlantic

That is certainly a valid observation. But it still begs the question why our 7 day averages for deaths is still climbing and at about 60% of the first wave of deaths.

Come late January, I think we’ll have conclusive data about the public health value of the vaccines.

And another anecdotal observation, some of the people I see getting sick either were already fully vaccinated or got it from someone who was. The concern here is the vaccine is causing some to have a false sense of security.

7-day reported deaths in AZ right now are running about 50-60% of where they were at this point in the summer 2020 wave and the winter 2021-2022 wave. I’m using 11/22 and 6/21 for the comparison dates based on AZDHS’s quotes numbers of Covid+ inpatients. Both 11/22 and 6/21 were running 22 deaths (7-day smoothed) according to WaPo’s dashboard. Right now we are running 14. We haven’t had 22 since March, though we did have a loca peak at 20 on 8/8.

It certainly seems to my unscientific eye that the vaccine is protecting the most vulnerable populations from dying. It also looks like the unvaccinated (and maybe some vaccinated also) are getting walloped by whatever version is currently circulating.

Time will tell.

https://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/states-normalized.html?chart=states-normalized&highlight=Arizona&show=highlight-only&y=highlight&scale=linear&data=deaths-daily-7&data-source=jhu&xaxis=right-52wk-wks&extra=United%20States#

This data pulls from John’s Hopkins and has been very useful for my personal analysis

1 Like

Berenson has certainly been wrong about a number of things.

However, the latest research (not yet peer-reviewed, so grain of salt and all that) contradicts this claim in the article:

The vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna, and Johnson & Johnson seem to provide stronger and more lasting protection against SARS-CoV-2 and its variants than natural infection.

According to this study, those who got Covid and recovered were anywhere from 5 to 7 to 13 times more protected than those who got the vaccine, depending on the timing of when they got Covid.

We have yet to see if the vaccine’s protection ends up being better long-term. It appears that time is an essential element of how effective both methods of protection are. It will also likely depend on what sort of mutations future variants have. Here is another article discussing the potential for the vaccine to be more effective.

3 Likes

Yeah - in Thompson’s defense (and I think he’s generally an interesting writer), this was written at the beginning of April and a lot of the comparative data on infections wasn’t available then. However, there is really no excuse for making the claim the way he did, and if you read the reference, it is a letter to Nature, not a study. It concludes:

Which is pretty weak. Also, the word “conclusive” is doing a lot of work here, even back in April:

Unfortunately, the incentives seem to be aligned toward false certainty and overstatement of claims no matter where you stand on various interventions.

3 Likes

Its too soon to tell, but so far our the peak cases (7-day average) for the summer “delta” peak have been about 60% of the peak last winter, and the deaths (7-day average) have been about 30-35%. There are all kinds of problems with this analysis; deaths peak later than cases, case totals are sensitive to testing regimes, etc. but I would be comfortable with the claim that the vaccine is protecting the most vulnerable. Also, the US has the lowest elderly vaccination rate among developed countries (wonder why) and we are seeing more deaths than other places that are truly having “casedemics” now. See the UK for example:

2 Likes

On the topic of vaccine effectiveness, the latest CDC MMWR has some good information:

SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Hospitalizations Among Persons Aged ≥16 Years, by Vaccination Status — Los Angeles County, California, May 1–July 25, 2021 | MMWR (cdc.gov)
New COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations Among Adults, by Vaccination Status — New York, May 3–July 25, 2021 | MMWR (cdc.gov)

In New York:

In Los Angeles:

3 Likes

Most of the private sector vaccine mandates I’ve seen allow for regular testing as an alternative. I find that very reasonable.

4 Likes