Nate Silver and Covid Politics

[bencarmack]

We are all tired of Covid debates, but I wanted to throw something out there that I saw the other day from Nate Silver. For those who don’t know, Silver is a liberal Jewish homosexual writer and statistician known for data journalism and predicting sports and political outcomes.

Something I appreciate about Silver is that while he obviously has liberal prejudices, he’s not afraid to follow the data where it leads even when it goes against liberal prejudices. He’s capable of independent analytical thought.

That’s what Silver posted on Twitter recently.

Conservative Christians have been saying for almost 2 years that the media and public health experts were conspiring against Trump to cost him the election, and that politics, not science, was driving public health guidelines. There have also been claims of data fraud, that state and federal agencies have exaggerated the death toll from Covid to keep us locked down.

What’s interesting is that we do, almost 2 years in, have real evidence of political machinations going on with public health officials, but not of the sort we were expecting. It’s not that the vaccine is bogus, it’s that they delayed telling us about vaccine development so that Trump could not claim a political victory 1 month before a very close election.

With regard to data manipulation, Andrew Cuomo lost his governorship in part over it, but it’s not because he manipulated the numbers upwards, but downwards. More people died than he claimed. He deliberated fudged nursing home numbers down.

Truth is sometimes stranger than fiction. The lies and manipulation don’t always work out like you would expect. When even Nate Silver acknowledges this, it’s worth paying attention.

[bencarmack]

It’s also worth thinking about how the politics of vaccination would have been different had we known about an effective vaccine in October 2020. $20 says that the Right would have been pro vax and the Left, anti vax.

[jackson (Jackson Bryant)]

@bencarmack

It’s also worth thinking about how the politics of vaccination would have been different had we known about an effective vaccine in October 2020.

I’ve been saying this sort of thing for a while.

Embracing mRNA necessitates apolitical caution, but the narrative that the government is trying to sterilize the population would likely be absent from “mainstream” conservative thought if Trump won the election.

Even now, I don’t think you can accept the bio-weapon theory without admitting Trump was/is in on it all.

[Joel (Joel Norris)]

@bencarmack

What’s interesting is that we do, almost 2 years in, have real evidence of political machinations going on with public health officials, but not of the sort we were expecting. It’s not that the vaccine is bogus, it’s that they delayed telling us about vaccine development so that Trump could not claim a political victory 1 month before a very close election.

I think people are missing the big picture here. I very much wish that political machinations were the dominant driver in federal policy and politics because one might expect semi-effective government, even if by the other side. The real story is not that vaccine approval might have been delayed to deny Trump a victory, which I increasingly doubt as time goes on, but that entrenched institutional and economic interests are rendering the federal government unreformable and beyond control of either Republican or Democratic administrations. We are seeing the U.S. edge closer to failed state status.

Here’s one example among many. The COVID case rate in my region is higher than any time previously in the pandemic, but COVID tests are expensive and hard to come by, even two years in. This isn’t a technical issue, since over-the-counter tests are cheap and abundant in other nations; it is because the FDA has been slow to approve tests. The FDA has been an impediment from the beginning, but years go by and Congress cannot work up the initiative to pass a law as simple as declaring any COVID test approved for use in Germany as legal to import and use in the U.S. The only success in combatting the pandemic was the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed, which mostly happened outside the usual process. But the best outside-the-box idea we get from the Biden administration is a proposal for “free” COVID tests that are only free in the sense that people can get reimbursed from their medical insurer after submitting documentation. One hardly knows whether to laugh or cry. Truly, God’s judgment is upon us (Is. 3:12).

[BooneCtyBeek (Jeff Singletary)]

Joe Rogan interviewed the inventor of the mRNA technology. Long podcast but worth the listen.

[FaithAlone (John M.)]

@bencarmack

When even Nate Silver acknowledges this, it’s worth paying attention.

When Nate Silver acknowledges this, it’s what the CIA calls a “limited modified hangout.” It’s a partial admission of truth to cover up for a larger lie. If Trump had somehow retained power in 2020, there is no possibility that Silver would admit that Pfizer stopped the count for political reasons.

There is, at present, no political penalty for admitting that Pfizer execs played politics with people’s health and lives as a way to thwart Orange Man. No one will read what Silver has to say and change his vote or opinion or prosecutorial discretion one way or another. Silver’s comment just provides a way for partisans to point and say, “See? That’s old news!”

The “Say, maybe Covid did leak from the Wuhan lab” stories in the Regime press in 2021 were the same playbook. Ditto the recent, “Oh, hey, turns out Drumph wasn’t a paid agent of the Kremlin like we told you.” No one will lose a job over any of these things. The same faces who reliably informed us of The Truth™️ will stay on our TV screens.

This is a sign of great weakness in our society and government: There are no penalties for insiders, no matter how great the lie or misdeed.

@bencarmack

It’s not that the vaccine is bogus

The vaccines have manifestly not lived up to what Public Health Officials ™️ and The Science™️ were telling us they would. In fact, I think it’s very likely that the vaccines have already failed and we just don’t have all the data to prove it yet.

@Joel

The real story is not that vaccine approval might have been delayed to deny Trump a victory, which I increasingly doubt as time goes on

What makes you doubt that? If you’ve seen an explanation for why Pfizer stopped the count, I’d love to see it. Frankly I think that Pfizer’s decision was so counter to its shareholders’ interests that they risked a shareholder lawsuit over it, and I’ve never seen any kind of explanation of their behavior.

@Joel

but that entrenched institutional and economic interests are rendering the federal government unreformable and beyond control of either Republican or Democratic administrations.

The difference is that the entrenched bureaucracy and the Democratic Party share the same worldview and interests, so it’s hard to imagine a Democratic administration asking the bureaucracy to do anything it doesn’t want to do already. A year into the Biden administration and it’s clear that the DNC could have installed a cardboard Obama cutout in the Oval Office and gotten everything it has wanted. I guess ICE has gone off-script once or twice. Heck, if they’d gone with the cutout they wouldn’t have had to withdraw from Afghanistan.

Maybe a Bernie administration would face issues, but I doubt Bernie is really interested in rocking the boat as much as he says he is.

But your bigger point is right on: the bureaucracy is outside the meaningful control of the American people. This is one of the lessons of the Trump administration IMHO, and one that Trump himself seems not to have learned. Back when Trump had his government shutdown, I read some armchair lawyering that he could have furloughed much of the Federal workforce. Probably a judge in Hawaii would have stopped it, but it would have been worth a shot. Alas, another missed opportunity.

@Joel

Truly, God’s judgment is upon us (Is. 3:12).

Yes.

[sewardsfolly (Nick)]

Funny how I was just thinking about posting something for the purposes of encouragement of the brethren at the beginning of what will certainly be a rather challenging new year. Maybe something else later, but first,

@bencarmack

Conservative Christians have been saying for almost 2 years that the media and public health experts were conspiring against Trump to cost him the election, and that politics, not science, was driving public health guidelines

This is an insufficient analysis. It is insufficient if one were saying it or disagreeing with it.

@bencarmack

It’s not that the vaccine is bogus, it’s that they delayed telling us about vaccine development so that Trump could not claim a political victory 1 month before a very close election.

@jackson

Even now, I don’t think you can accept the bio-weapon theory without admitting Trump was/is in on it all.

I honestly understand the confusion on this. I think that a meaningful understanding of essentially what has been/is taking place regarding vaccines/OPWASP can be had, however. Expect the confusion sown on this particular aspect of the current “situation” to increase in 2022. Massively.

@bencarmack

It’s also worth thinking about how the politics of vaccination would have been different had we known about an effective vaccine in October 2020. $20 says that the Right would have been pro vax and the Left, anti vax.

I don’t think its remotely that simple.

@Joel

…but that entrenched institutional and economic interests are rendering the federal government unreformable and beyond control of either Republican or Democratic administrations. We are seeing the U.S. edge closer to failed state status.

In a sense, but…
a. There’s such a thing as “accidentally on purpose.”
b. It doesn’t really have to be like this.
c. What your quoted line describes has been taking place much more extensively and longer than we’ve tended to realize.

@Joel

The FDA has been an impediment from the beginning…

@Joel

The only success in combatting the pandemic was the Trump administration’s Operation Warp Speed, which mostly happened outside the usual process. But the best outside-the-box idea we get from the Biden administration…

I’ll admit that I’m slightly surprised that the debate persists regarding whether we’re observing incompetence or malicious intent. It’s both. As a result of extremely malicious intent. In highly active warfare, substantial confusion of one’s enemies is actually counted as tactical success.

@FaithAlone

A year into the Biden administration and it’s clear that the DNC could have installed a cardboard Obama cutout in the Oval Office and gotten everything it has wanted.

hehe.
Maybe not absolutely everything, though.

@Joel

Truly, God’s judgment is upon us (Is. 3:12).

Amen. I have no objection.

@Joel

One hardly knows whether to laugh or cry.

Psalms 2:4-6 Joel 2:12-14

@bencarmack

Truth is sometimes stranger than fiction.

Dang it, brothers. We’re only one day into 2022.

[Joel (Joel Norris)]

@FaithAlone

If you’ve seen an explanation for why Pfizer stopped the count, I’d love to see it. Frankly I think that Pfizer’s decision was so counter to its shareholders’ interests that they risked a shareholder lawsuit over it, and I’ve never seen any kind of explanation of their behavior.

The key question is whether the FDA would have approved the vaccine earlier than the election had Pfizer acted more quickly. If not, then it doesn’t matter what Pfizer would have done. And there is abundant evidence that the FDA is extremely cautious and moves extremely slowly. That FDA foot-dragging has happened in the Biden administration shows that it is an inherent characteristic of the FDA bureaucracy rather than primarily politically motivated.

@FaithAlone

The difference is that the entrenched bureaucracy and the Democratic Party share the same worldview and interests, so it’s hard to imagine a Democratic administration asking the bureaucracy to do anything it doesn’t want to do already.

A weak Yes, in the sense that the Democratic Party likes to put into place complicated programs that need lots of bureaucracy to manage. But a strong No in the sense that the Democrats are facing a terrible wipeout this coming November, in large part because they have been unable to solve quite a few problems plaguing ordinary Americans, most of which are actually in the wheelhouse of the federal government. So even though most of the federal bureaucrats are Democrats, the Democratic party is not going to remain in charge of the elected government if they can’t get control and solve problems.

@FaithAlone

This is a sign of great weakness in our society and government: There are no penalties for insiders, no matter how great the lie or misdeed.

Even worse, there is no penalty for incompetence. We desperately need to elect leaders who will focus on the actual task of governing.

[FaithAlone (John M.)]

@Joel

The key question is whether the FDA would have approved the vaccine earlier than the election had Pfizer acted more quickly. If not, then it doesn’t matter what Pfizer would have done.

If Pfizer had followed its own protocol, they would have announced an efficacious vaccine just before the election (instead of just after). This would have been huge news and a huge win for Trump right before the election. However long the FDA wanted to sit on its hands, that would not have prevented the “Vaccine is Ready” headlines* and the obvious implication that Operation Warp Speed was a success, thanks in no small part to President Trump.

But Pfizer, likely due to the fact that the results were coming back looking good for the vaxx, violated its own protocol and stopped testing its samples until after the election, thus delaying the news.

*Of course, the corrupt corporate media always could have labeled Pfizer’s press release “Russian disinformation” and suppressed the news.

@Joel

But a strong No in the sense that the Democrats are facing a terrible wipeout this coming November, in large part because they have been unable to solve quite a few problems plaguing ordinary Americans, most of which are actually in the wheelhouse of the federal government.

My prediction is that even if the Democrats get wiped out in the legislature, there will be no consequences for anyone. The Republicans will hold toothless hearings and block Biden’s legislative agenda. The bureaucracy will continue to bureaucrat. Some elected Democrats will become un-elected Democrats and will find themselves comfortable sinecures on corporate boards, K Street and think tanks.

The bureaucracy will continue to plot against the American people even when it can’t actively thwart the interests of the American people.

And then, inevitably, the Democrats will come to (formal) power once again and the bureaucracy will be ready to spring into action.

The federal bureaucracy can perhaps best be thought of as a fourth branch of government that is permanently in the hands of the Democrats. On their own, they can thwart the other branches, and given a cooperative other branch or two, can move the ball down the field for their own purposes.

It will take a force much stronger than Trump to break the power of the bureaucracy in the federal government. It will likely take someone ready and willing to act in the manner that the corrupt corporate media was always assuring us that Trump was about to act. Another pack of feckless Republicans in the House simply isn’t going to cut it.