EXACTLY
Paul Belcher’s 61yo, first-time-voting dad isn’t answering the phone to tell anyone he’s voting that way (I’m guessing). Someone sat with me as we discussed this the other day and told me how her parents aren’t answering the phone right now because of pollers calling. And those are people that are unashamedly pro-Trump. Who doesn’t bunch pollsters in with the media? And what do all Trump voters not trust? Of course no polls would be accurate about anything having to do with the Trump vote. I only know more people voting for Trump than last time (and that includes myself.)
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Who would bet on the polls being more accurate this time around? The pollsters still seem to be over-sampling Democrats, despite a clear enthusiasm gap, and essentially none are adjusting for any Trump voters. I can’t imagine any Trump supporters who pay the vaguest attention to the media are more inclined to voice support for Trump on the phone with strangers than they were in 2016.
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I don’t understand why organizations that do polling wouldn’t be attempting to fix their mistakes from last time. If anything, assuming they actually are liberal shills, we should expect them to inflate Trump’s chances since last time they were blamed for low turnout among liberals since the polls showed it wasn’t going to be close.
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Have a look at these figures from a Democratic polling firm.
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Like a sow to her mire.
Some interesting numbers I saw in regards to Texas.
In 2016, Texas had 8,969,226 votes cast.
As of 10/30 of this year, there have been 9,009,850 votes so far.
At first I thought that was a bad sign for Trump, not just in Texas but in the entire country, but then I saw the following sampling of numbers…
Harris County (Houston) 2016: 1,312,112 votes cast.
Harris County 2020: 1,178,257 as of 10/30
Dallas County 2016: 758,973 votes cast.
Dallas County 2020: 675,877 as of 10/30.
So Texas is seeing a huge surge in voting for this election all over the state, but a larger portion of the surge is coming from outside two of the biggest and most liberal leaning counties in the state.
To me, this communicates that liberals and conservatives have greater enthusiasm for voting this year, but Trump’s base is outpacing Biden’s.
I have held the assumption that Biden would win for a while now, but what seems to be going on in PA is intriguing to me. I previously didn’t think Trump had a chance but I now think he’ll win there. And if he wins PA, that’s a game-changer.
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I don’t think the pollsters know how they got it so wrong last time, @jtbayly.
Heather, I agree there’s much more shame heaped on Trump supporters this time around.
I thought someone above said that stronger polarity means a closer election. I don’t think rather that strong polarization and rhetoric leads to more unpredictability. Which is why I think turnout will be the determining factor here, realizing that much goes into turnout.
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I’m feeling pretty good about my prediction earlier.
I was way off!
Good morning everyone (just before midday in the UK as I write).
- Far closer than I imagined (I thought on the basis of turnout that Biden had it in the bag)
- Politically, I think Trump was helped by the BLM/Antifa protests and especially the disorder they engendered
- Republicans seem to have held the Senate (this will matter if Biden does win)
On an amusing note: The President tweeted, “Voting cannot continue once the Poles (sic) have closed!” This led to an official (Giovernment-level) reply of, “Poland is still open!”
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Well, it looks like I got Maine’s 2nd CD and Nebraska’s 2nd CD wrong. Those are worth one electoral vote each so they cancel each other out.
I saw a report that the large populated Wisconsin counties, such as Milwaukee, will have their early votes counted by 5am. Joe Biden now leads in Wisconsin by a little bit, so it looks like I got Wisconsin wrong. It looks like Biden will win Wisconsin. Michigan is trending Biden’s way. Assuming Biden also wins Nevada, Biden wins and Pennsylvania does not matter.
The late counting of the early voting/absentee ballots is terrible optics. Wait and see. But it is Biden’s to lose. He is going to win the popular vote by more than Hillary Clinton did. Wait and see.
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Hope this isn’t too late to bump an old post. 
It does seem moderately unfair of me to submit a comment under a topic entitled “Election Predictions” just over six months after the general election concluded. To make up, I’ll be brief, at least, and hopefully interesting. I think that the results of the 2020 presidential election will be a blessing to Donald Trump and, in God’s grace, our society as well. Proper analysis and assessment is very important but so much has already been said and written and the issues involved really are almost mind-bending in their ability to confuse. I don’t think it has to be that way, though. Amidst all the strangeness, I remain confident in our God’s ability to bring gracious blessings in the darkest times and sometimes in very unexpected ways. That has been one of my constant prayers throughout the last year or so. Oh, but as to predictions, I personally think that Mr. Trump will be regarded by historians of the future as one of the single most blessed and genuinely “great” actual leaders and Presidents that our country has EVER known. Sometimes not everything is exactly how it appears at first. I pray that the election works out very well for him.
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